Following her resignation from the Marcos cabinet, Vice President Sara Duterte remained the top choice for president in the non-commissioned second quarter 2024 opinion poll conducted by Oculum Research and Analytics.
But Duterte’s support slid to 25.4% based on the Q2 poll of 1,200 respondents aged 18 and above randomly selected nationwide. In the first-quarter Oculum survey, the vice president obtained 42% support.
Sen. Raffy Tulfo was the choice of 18.5% of respondents, while 10.6% chose former vice president Maria Leonor “Leni” Robredo.
They were followed by Sen. Imee Marcos (5.7%), former Manila mayor Francisco “Isko Moreno” Domagoso (4.8%), former senator Manny Pacquiao (3.1%), Sen. Risa Hontiveros (2.9%), Sen. Robin Padilla (2.6%), and House Speaker Martin Romualdez (0.8%).
The Q1 poll topped by Vice President Duterte had eight names. The Q2 survey was expanded to nine names with the inclusion of Sen. Risa Hontiveros on the list.
Respondents in the Q2 non-commissioned Oculum poll were provided with a showcard containing the names of the nine personalities mentioned above, plus an explicit option not to make any choice (“wala pang pasya”).
A significant chunk of respondents, 20.4%, were undecided while 4.3% chose none of the nine names listed in the Q2 Oculum poll.
Dr. Racidon Bernarte, Oculum Research Head and Managing Director of the Asia-Pacific Consortium of Researchers and Educators Inc. (APCoRE), said the survey results painted a complex picture of the Philippine electoral landscape.
“Inday Sara Duterte emerges as the current frontrunner with widespread support, particularly strong in Mindanao. Sen. Raffy Tulfo, while second overall, shows a broad appeal across various regions. Former vice president Leni Robredo, although third, has concentrated support in Southern Luzon,” he said.
“The high percentage of undecided voters and those opting for none of the above highlight’s potential volatility and opportunities for candidates to sway the electorate as the election approaches,” Bernarte said.
The 2024 second-quarter national survey was conducted from June 25 to 30, 2024 by Oculum Research and Analytics in partnership with APCoRE, a professional organization of academics and researchers, Areopagus Communications Inc., and PressOne.PH.
A total of 1,200 respondents, aged 18 years old and above, were interviewed face-to-face. The respondents were distributed as follows: 300 from the National Capital Region, 300 from the rest of Luzon, 300 from the Visayas and 300 Mindanao. It had a margin of error of ± 3 percentage points and a confidence level of 95%.
Source: Oculum Research and Analytics Q2 Opinion Poll
n=1,200, margin of error ± 3 percentage points, 95% confidence interval
Q: If there is an election today for president, who will you vote for? Choose one. (Kung may halalan sa araw na ito para sa pagkapresidente, sino ang iyong iboboto? Mamili ng isa.)